He Juan
A view of Lujiazui, Shanghai Photo: VCG
The essence of a growth target lies not in prediction, but in guidance and shaping, where the primary consideration is needs and possibilities.
Why needs?
“Remaining within a reasonable range” and achieving positive growth are precisely the needs of healthy development.
Economic growth is a fundamental and comprehensive indicator with strong interconnectedness. It touches everything from employment opportunities and education funding to social security expenditure. A certain rate of economic growth is both a prerequisite for high-quality development and a foundation for improving people’s livelihoods.
In the near term, it should serve such goals as stabilizing employment, steadying the market, and improving people’s livelihoods. Looking ahead, it must remain aligned with our medium- to long-term objectives and long-term visions.
This year marks the start of the 15th Five-Year plan. To achieve goals such as “substantially growing the per capita GDP to be on par with that of a mid-level developed country” by 2035, an average annual growth rate of 4.17 percent is needed over the next decade. This year’s growth target is set above that level, reflecting the motivation and initiative to drive progress.
Why possibilities?
We should aim high while standing firm – this approach aligns well with China’s growth potential.
Annual retail sales of consumer goods exceeded 50 trillion yuan ($7.25 trillion) – this is the opportunity of China’s vast market. The number of AI companies surpassed 6,000, with the core industry scale surpassing a trillion yuan in just a few years – this is the vitality of a global innovation hub. Market institutions’ forecasts for China’s growth potential consistently fall within, or even exceed, this range.
By staying committed to high-quality development as the overarching principle of this new era, driving progress through reform and innovation, and leveraging our “four strengths” to fully unlock potential, we have confidence, and even more so, determination.
Why “range”?
To race against time and keep pace with history, we can neither afford to move without a certain speed, nor should we reach beyond what is achievable. Setting the target too low would fail to fully mobilize initiative and risk losing alignment with medium- to long-term plans. Setting it too high, detached from reality, would breed hesitation and fear of difficulty, or even encourage a rush for quick results and short-term gains.
Facing lingering issues and emerging challenges, development faces greater uncertainties and demands stronger impetus. Consider the changes unseen in a century – “one moment we encounter a gray rhino, the next a black swan.” Or take the shift in growth drivers: it cannot happen overnight, and the old and new will coexist for some time. Both risk prevention and structural adjustment require time to create the necessary space.
The “range-based regulation” sets a lower bound for growth while preserving upward flexibility and sufficient room for policy maneuvering — all to safeguard the certainty of high-quality development. This also means that achieving the target will be anything but easy; it will require sustained and arduous effort.
Ahead of the Spring Festival, local “two sessions” were convened across the country, where many provinces set growth target ranges. For example, Zhejiang and Anhui anchored their goals at 5 percent to 5.5 percent GDP growth, while also pledging to strive for better results in practice. This follows the logic of “the peach can be reached by jumping,” or setting ambitious but attainable goals.
“Forging ahead step by step.” This reflects the patience to maintain one’s own pace of development.
Guangdong, a major economic powerhouse, saw its economic growth in the first three quarters of 2025 fall below the national average, but better than the same period in 2024 and the whole of 2024. “With such a large base, even this level of growth represents a significant increase. Guangdong should focus on comparing progress with itself.” General Secretary Xi Jinping’s important speech during his inspection tour here last November contains a wealth of insights.
As the economic base rises and the overall scale expands, growth rates naturally moderate; this is a general law of development. Development is not merely about quantitative expansion, but about structural optimization and quality enhancement – a scientific understanding of progress. Over the past five years, China’s economy has expanded by over 36 trillion yuan, effectively “recreating” an economy among the world’s largest, while maintaining a leading average growth rate. At the same time, the development of new quality productive forces has accelerated, and a modern industrial system has taken shape more rapidly.
“Comparing progress with oneself” embodies the pragmatism and composure of “one should take a longer view.” To make further progress from an already high level, we must emphasize both quantity and – more importantly – quality. Can we go even faster? It’s not that we cannot; it’s that we choose not to. The very “first lesson of the new year” stressed curbing impulsive pursuit of governance achievements, carrying profound significance.
“Pursuing genuine and unvarnished growth, and advancing high-quality, sustainable development.” This demonstrates the determination to forge ahead despite pressure and strive for innovation and high quality.
As domestic large-scale AI models are flourishing in fierce competition and homegrown new-energy vehicles weave through streets and alleys, in today’s China, innovation and creation are surging to the forefront, erupting in dense clusters. Immersed in this era, we have no reason not to feel confident, and no reason not to redouble our efforts with even greater vigor.
Having goals is important, but so is taking action; having confidence is important, but so are having solutions. By fully seizing development opportunities, potential, and advantages, focusing our energy on managing our own affairs well, spurring our horses forward with vigor and pressing ahead courageously on the new journey, we will surely continue to write new miracles.
